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Nick Halling’s NFL Blog

Last week proved that the post-season can be every bit as unpredictable as the regular season. Nobody in their right mind would have predicted a Seattle Seahawks victory (although some of us did warn against the big spread against them), and while Mr Clever Clogs here reckoned that the Green Bay Packers would pull off the victory in Philadelphia, I certainly didn’t expect them to do it with short passes and a power running game which had been kept completely under wraps for the entire regular season. With that in mind, let’s move onto this weekend’s divisional round where in theory, the four home sides should have a huge advantage as they have had an extra week to rest up and prepare.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

It will be a close one. It always seems to be these days between these huge rivals who are virtual mirror images of each other. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points. The other one was by four points. Over the last 17 games in which they have played each other, the Ravens and the Steelers have managed to score exactly the same number of points: 302. In other words, a big play here, a turnover there, will in all likelihood decide the outcome of this game. The spread reflects the fact that the Steelers are at home, but the Ravens won at Heinz Field last time out. The Total Points spread of 36-39 is the lowest on offer this weekend, which is hardly a surprise. I think the under might be worth a look, especially as the temperatures call for freezing conditions with snow showers.

Why is the spread so low? The first game between the two at Heinz Field produced 23 points, while the rematch leaked 31 points. In their last three games, Baltimore’s defense had allowed just 24 points. And in their last four contests, no quarterback has managed to throw for more than 160 yards. The Steelers aren’t too shabby either: first in the NFL (by a considerable margin) in run defense, first in sacks and first in red zone defense. It’s going to be very hard work for both sets of offenses, and there certainly won’t be many rushing yards.

Instead, look to Ben Roethlisberger taking a few shots for the Steelers, with Mike Wallace or the emerging Emanuel Sanders as likely targets. For the Ravens, don’t look for them to exploit seams in the middle of the field like they did last week in Kansas City. A more realistic strategy would be to try and spread the Steelers out with three and four wide receiver sets. With Pittsburgh’s top cover corner, Ike Taylor, likely to be taking care of Anquan Boldin, check out what’s happening on the other side. The Steelers defensive weakness is Bryant McFadden, and he’s been picked on all season. He’ll draw Derrick Mason or T J Houshmandzadeh, and they can both beat him. If they do go down the middle, tight end Todd Heap’s your man. He emerged with 10 catches last week, and also didn’t play in that loss to the Steelers in Baltimore.

As for who’s going to win, this is likely to be a tight as both their regular season meetings, which went down to the final minute. The Ravens have never beaten the Steelers in the post-season, and while the fan in me will be yelling like mad for Big Ben and the boys (and yes, I will have my Terrible Towel with me under the desk in the studio, ultra-professional that I am), my inner punter will be playing a hunch that this might just be Baltimore’s turn on Saturday night.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Oh, those tricky, tricky Packers. Their running game has been awful all year long. The oft-injured rookie James Starks had flashed some promise, but nothing more substantial than that, with only 29 carries for 101 yards in three matches all season. So what did the Packers do? They let him loose on the Eagles to the tune of 23 carries for a massive 123 yards. At least it will give the favoured Falcons something else to prepare for this week.

The word on the Falcons is that they are the most balanced team in the league, and they don’t beat themselves with stupid mistakes or turnovers. Well run from top to bottom, Coach Mike Smith has them playing at a consistently high level, and they have proved to be virtually unbeatable in their own Georgia Dome. But that’s not reflected in the spread, which shows the Falcons as narrow favourites, and I think I agree with that assessment. In fact, I’ll go further and predict another Packers win straight up. The Falcons are the Sweden of the NFL. They play neat, mistake-free stuff, but it is an exercise in efficiency, nothing more. As Sweden tends to find when the World Cup reaches the knockout phase, Atlanta will discover that you need more than efficiency to progress in the post-season.

Sure, they won at home against Green Bay in November on a late field goal, but that was after Aaron Rodgers had fumbled at the goal line going in for a touchdown which would have made it safe for Green Bay. It was a typical Atlanta performance. No turnovers, long, monotonous drives which bore opponents to death, and the Big Three of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White heavily involved. There are few mysteries when it comes to the Falcons. They have a lot of well-coached players who know how to execute the game plan. But one of the keys to their ongoing success is the form of running back Michael Turner.

“The Burner” certainly did his stuff in the first meeting between the two, with 110 yards and a touchdown. However, there has been a marked downturn in his productivity of late. The NFL’s leader in rush attempts has looked heavy-legged over the last five weeks, and is averaging less than three yards per carry (he’s also lost two fumbles in that span). So here’s the gamble. Either Turner has hit the wall. Or else the last week’s bye will have done him the world of good and he will return with fresh legs. Receiver Roddy White, who had a big day against just about everybody in the regular season, was held to a disappointing five catches for 49 yards against the Packers.

While Starks might not surprise anyone now, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Packers turn him loose once more. In contrast to Turner, his legs are barely used, and if his offensive line can dominate in the trenches the way they did last week in Philadelphia, things will be very interesting. Atlanta’s front four are fast and aggressive but lack size. A power running game would be the last thing they want to see. But to keep his team balanced, Aaron Rodgers will have to take his shots downfield against an opportunistic Atlanta defense in which 13 different players have picked up at least one interception. They had that balance last week with 138 rush yards and 171 passing. More of the same and the Packers can win this game – but only by playing without mistakes or turnovers.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Ah, those shifty, spread-busting Seahawks. If you took my advice last week and bet on Seattle with the points, you owe me a drink. I never like double-digit spreads and with good reason. But now here comes another one. These bookies just never learn, do they?

Except this time, they might have a point. Forget that these Seahawks won 23-20 in Soldier Field back in week six. That proved to be the nadir of Chicago’s season, especially on offense. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz was still in his “don’t protect the quarterback” phase, with the result that Jay Cutler was lucky not to end up in casualty every night. The Bears offense of today bears scant resemblance to the outfit Seattle blitzed to death back in October to the tune of six sacks and countless QB pressures.

It says it all that in the last 10 games, Cutler hasn’t managed to go over 250 yards in a game, yet is still playing possibly the most efficient football of his career. The emphasis now is more on protection, with a sustained commitment to the run. It goes contrary to how Martz likes to play, but it is working. The key is the running of Matt Forte. He seems to be coming on stronger over the latter part of the season, which bodes ill for Seattle’s Super Bowl run. Over the last six games, he’s averaging a scary 5.6 yards per carry. The Hawks are average at best stopping the run.

Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck rolled back the years with his flawless performance against New Orleans last week. He needs another one on Sunday for the Seahawks to have any chance. Not sacked once in 40 dropbacks in their first meeting, Hass hit Big Mike Williams all day long to the tune of 10 catches for 123 yards. Bears coach Lovie Smith has publicly stated that stopping Williams is one of Chicago’s highest priorities in this game. Having said that, I still like Hass to out-produce Cutler in this matchup, and in slot receiver Brandon Stokley, he has a player whose skill set fits the Seattle scheme perfectly.

The Hawks will have to throw because there’s no way they are going to be able to run the football. Everyone’s still raving about Marshawn Lynch’s amazing, game-clinching 67-yard run which shattered the Saints last week, and rightly so. It was a moment of genuine NFL playoff magic. Magic doesn’t make you money, so let’s forget about it, and consider a few facts about Mr Lynch. Strip that 67 yard bulldozing out of his stat line, and you’re left with a measly 18 carries for 64 yards. That doesn’t look quite so flashy does it? Consider also that the Bears rank second only to Pittsburgh in stopping the run. And if you are still in doubt, don’t forget that the Seahawks are out of their Qwest Field comfort zone now, and on the road, Lynch averages a wretched 2.8 yards per carry.

I love a good upset as much as anyone, but the Seahawks have had theirs. A cold water bucket of reality is about to hit them full in the face, and on frigid Soldier Field, where highs of 21 degrees are being forecast, they are about to be frozen out of the Super Bowl picture.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

New England’s Gillette Stadium has so far proved to be a graveyard for Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez’s aspirations to NFL greatness. Two games, one touchdown, seven interceptions, no wins, a 46 percent completion percentage and plenty of mental and physical pain – not to mention the awful memories of a 45-3 shellacking as recently as week 13. If I was the Jets head coach, one thing would be obvious to me: to have any chance at revenge, I need to keep the ball away from Sanchez as much as possible.

So the mission for the Jets is to establish the running game, which they managed so effectively in Indianapolis last week. Shonn Greene and especially LaDanian Tomlinson, were able to move the ball pretty well against the Colts. But here comes the bad news. Their best run blocking lineman, Damien Woody, is out for the season. And the Colts are pussycats against the run in comparison with the Patriots. Although it is also worth pointing out that the Pats are very thin across the defensive line: an injury or two might tip the scales in New York’s favour.

The big statistical weakness in New England’s armoury is that they give up a lot of yards through the air. Big deal. Most teams fall behind against them, so have to throw to give themselves any chance of catching up. Sure, the Pats rank 30th in passing yards allowed, but where it really matters they are much meaner – ranking eighth in points allowed.

So much for the Pats defense: now for their monster of an offense. Quarterback Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since week six, and is playing more and more like a programmed automaton (I mean that as a compliment). His great skill is to take what is on offer: there’s no forcing of the issue with Brady. What was on offer in week 13 were quick outs and short underneath routes, which let his receivers work to get yards after the catch. Chief recipient was running back Danny Woodhead, whose speed and elusiveness proved too much for those lumbering Jets linebackers. The Jets have long been vulnerable to a short passing game down the middle of the field which exposes the coverage weaknesses of their middle linebackers and safeties. If Woodhead doesn’t get them, then one of their three tight ends will (half of Brady’s 36 touchdowns this season have gone to tight ends), and if that wasn’t enough, there’s always Wes Welker coming out of the slot.

And just when the Jets are reeling in coverage, the Pats can always wheel out running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who very quietly had a superb season and is running hard (the Jets know: he burned them for two touchdowns). In short, the Pats know the Jets and match up extremely well against them. The Pats are also playing with a chip on their shoulders. The Jets have been running their mouths as usual this week, and the Patriots don’t like that. I’ve seen this happen before. The Patriots do their talking on the field, but if there is a chance to humiliate their opponents, they will take it, just like they did in week 13. The spread, in this context, might look pretty mean. Pile onto the Patriots on Sunday and you could be doing your bank balance a world of good.

Please note: The content above solely contains the views and opinions of Nick Halling and not Sporting Index Ltd. Sporting Index offers it services on an ‘execution only’ basis under FSA regulations and does not provide investment advice.

 

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